Home  News National News Don’t be fooled by the numbers
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Don’t be fooled by the numbers |
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Sunday, 19 October 2008 |
The days to Election Day are winding down and the election campaigns are heating up – considerably. And, while the polls reflect that Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama has it in the bag, I’m here to tell you – don’t be fooled by the numbers.
As of Wednesday Oct. 15, Gallup polls showed Obama leading seven percentage points, 50% to 43% nationally among registered voters. Barack Obama is also leading in key battleground states like Florida by four points and Ohio by five points. It looks great that he is ahead, but the finish line is less than three weeks away. Obama can’t afford to pull a Usain Bolt and celebrate or slow down before crossing the line, because unlike Track & Field, where Bolt is depending solely on himself; in this election, Obama is depending on you – the voter.
Now, I’m not saying Obama will not win. By all accounts, save for some severe gaffe, or some seismic shift in the political landscape, he should win this election, but not without the votes. People should not look at the numbers and think, “It’s a landslide anyway, so I don’t have to vote”. Believe me, if enough people take that attitude, then the landslide some people are predicting, will not happen.
Add to that the allegations of illegal purging of voter rolls across the country, which will adversely affect newly registered voters, and it is obvious that every vote is needed to win. A report in The New York Times stated that, “Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times.”
While the NYT said this was due to errors in handling the registration, it also said it will adversely affect Democrats who have more newly registered voters and will cause confusion on Election Day when these people show up to vote and are challenged by election officials.
Though Florida has not been named in the voter purging debacle, it doesn’t mean that Floridians don’t have a responsibility to ensure that they are properly registered and can actually cast a ballot when the time comes – whether for Republican presidential nominee John McCain or Obama. Democrats, especially in Florida, should look to the 2000 and 2004 elections, and how close elections open the doors for all types of voter fraud.
Vote Early
Florida is begins its early voting on Monday, October 20, giving voters a chance to cast their ballots before Election Day. But early voting is not just about convenience for people who have to work during the week and would rather vote on the weekend, or the person who can’t be bothered to wait in long lines on Nov. 4. It is also a way for people who are newly registered to find out if there are any discrepancies, so they can be rectified before the Election Day.
If people wait to vote on Nov. 4 there is no chance to fix anything. That is the deadline. With the ‘No Match, No Vote’ law in effect, there will be problems at the polls on Nov. 4. Some people might find that they were not registered because their names, social security or driver’s license number don’t match what they have in the state’s database. If these people go to the polls on Nov. 4, they risk getting a provisional ballot with which they will vote, along with two days to verify their identity. But this is AFTER the election, and possibly too late. Chances are the new president will have been already named and these votes may not mean much, if anything at that time.
The Bradley Effect
You may have been hearing the phrase ‘The Bradley Effect’ on news cycles, talk shows and have seen it show up in blogs. The Bradley Effect essentially was named for former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, subsequent to his run for California governor in 1982. There were some polls that showed Bradley leading with 9 points or higher before the elections only to see him lose to Republican George Deukmejian by a little over a point. According to Lance Tarrance, a pollster for Bradley, it was a case of bad polling because his campaign's internals had shown a dead heat.
Fact or myth, the theory is that the percentage of Whites who said they would vote for him in the polls did not end up voting for him. Political analysts say it may not happen this time around because “times have changed,” and that the “economic crisis may trump race” this year. But with people at McCain/Palin rallies shouting “Terrorists”, “Kill Him” and “Off with his head”, things may not have changed that much.
So, people interested in a Democrat for president in 2009 should ignore the poll numbers, pretend they are behind and vote in record numbers.
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