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Clinton wins; not much changes PDF Print E-mail
Written by Dr. Garth A. Rose   
Sunday, 27 April 2008

Hillary Clinton’s victory in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary marks the third time that she has rebounded when the polls and public opinion either predicted a very close contest between her and Barack Obama, or her defeat. She won New Hampshire in January although the polls predicted her defeat; in March she halted Obama’s momentum in Ohio after he had won several primaries in February, and now won by some 9.4 percentage points in Pennsylvania despite a very strong Obama campaign, where the polls predicted her winning by a 5 percent margin.

Clinton’s victory, however, fell well below the 23 percent the polls showed she had over Obama some 6 weeks ago – a positive sign for some Obama supporters, especially in a state that was long predicted to go Clinton’s way. Moreover, ‘Obamacans’ are heartened that Tuesday’s primary results have not seriously affected Obama’s lead in delegates, states won and popular votes.

On the other hand, some are concerned about Obama’s inability to make serious inroads with the white male-blue collar-white women coalition (a significant constituency in the general elections) that has shown strong support for Clinton in places like Ohio, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California and now Pennsylvania.

Another concern by some Democrats here in Florida, like Hugh Smith of West Kendall, is that the insistence of Clinton in involving Obama in a negative campaign, supported by the main stream media, has thrown Obama off his message of hope and change.

“Obama must find a way to get around the negatives and focus on issues in which the American people, most of all the working class, need change,” said Smith told the National Weekly. “The main issue is the economy. People, Black, White, Hispanic; young, old; educated, not-so educated, are concerned about the weakness of their pay checks, rise in gas and food prices, and losing their homes. Obama must emphasize his plans to bring improvement in these areas and let the negatives fall by the way. I think he will get more votes if he emphasizes this message.”

Despite Tuesday’s loss Obama is still favored to be the Democratic nominee in national polls. In a CNN Poll-of Polls he leads Clinton by 11 percent, and in Tuesday’s exit polls over 55 percent preferred him to be the nominee, the majority admitted to viewing Obama as more honest and trustworthy than Clinton, and favored a candidate who can bring about change - Obama's core message - over one, like Clinton, with years of political experience.

Members of the Obama campaign, looking towards the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, are reinforcing themselves to fend off any potential problems like those that erupted during the Pennsylvania campaign. Weeks were spent defending Obama’s association with his Chicago pastor, Jeremiah Wright, and, in the last week of the campaign, his comments describing small town working class voters as being bitter about the economy.

The latest polls in Indiana and North Carolina gives Obama a 5 and 16 percent advantage respectively.

 
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