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With the
campaign for the Democratic nomination proving to be a tight contest between
Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama there is growing speculation that the
final decision as to which of the two will represent the Democrats in the
November 4 general elections rests on the votes of the party’s super delegates.
Here in Florida, the 185 pledged
delegates and 25 super delegates will not be seated at the National Democratic
Convention in August, but if it is up to the super delegates, they will definitely
take their seat. Florida’s
super delegates are claiming that they must be seated, as the party’s national
charter protects their right to be at the convention. It is understood that of
these super delegates, seven, including Senator Bill Nelson and U.S. Reps.
Kendrick Meek and Alcee Hastings, support Clinton;
three, including U.S. Rep Robert Wexler, support Obama, and 15 are
uncommitted.
Many people
are unfamiliar with the role of super delegates, particularly since in previous
Democratic presidential primaries the presidential nominee was selected
relatively early in the primary season, and the role of the super delegates was
marginal. This year, they may well be the deciding factor in the nomination
process. Although Democratic primaries have been held in some 28 states,
including 22 on Super Tuesday (February 5) less than 100 delegates divide those
secured by Clinton (1,045) and Obama (960) leaving them at a virtual tie at
this point of the contest.
Unless
either of the candidates secures 2025 delegates prior to the Democratic
convention in Denver, Colorado the decision will possibly rest
with the party’s super delegates.
The
delegates secured to date, through primaries and caucuses, are called pledged
delegates, pledging their support to the respective candidates. The super
delegates are, however, "unpledged" delegates drawn from various
states. They make up about 20 percent of each party's total delegates at their
respective national nominating conventions, and are at liberty to select any
candidate regardless of the primary and caucus outcomes in their particular
states.
Super
delegates are typically governors, members of the U. S. House of Representative,
the Senate and other party officials.
For their
2008 convention, Democrats have 792 super delegates out of the 4049 total
delegates required to attend the convention, with 2025 delegates needed to win
the nomination. Republicans have 463 unpledged delegates out of 2380 total with
1191 votes needed to win that party’s presidential nomination. John McCain seems to be the clear Republican nominee
having secured over 700 delegates, with his closest rival, now Mike Huckabee,
having only 195 and Mitt Romney dropping out of that race.
To date,
there is little indication to how the Democratic super delegates will vote at
the national convention, but there are reports that both candidates are
courting them. In the case of Florida and Michigan, the situation affecting
their super delegates becomes very important, especially if the election of the
Democratic nominee rests with super delegates at the convention. Both states
were denied all their delegates to the national convention by the Democratic
National Committee because they moved up their primaries to January.
Unless the
Florida Democratic Party succeeds in having the DNC reverse its decision, none
of the delegates will be seated. Senator Clinton is pushing for the Florida’s 210 and Michigan’s
156 delegates to be seated. This would be to her benefit, as although the
candidates did not contest the primaries held in either state, she received
majority votes which would give her an advantage in the pledged delegate count
and which could divert the dependency on super delegates’ votes. The Obama
campaign would most likely strongly oppose this, as it would not be to their
advantage.
The battle
for delegates between Clinton and Obama now targets 363 delegates available in
the Louisiana Democratic primary and caucuses
in Washington, Nebraska
and the Virgin Islands on February 9, the Maine
caucus on February 10, and the Maryland, Virginia and the District
of Columbia primaries on February 12. It is projected that Obama should get the
majority share of these delegates with these states having large blocs of
Black, young, and white collared workers (the black and green votes as one
commentator describes it) who have been supporting Obama. However, when the
primaries move to Texas and Ohio
on March 4, victory is projected for Clinton
based on the strong Latino and elderly-blue collar base (brown and grey) in
those states – two blocks that have been supporting her. This tit-for-tat
voting pattern for both candidates makes it more likely that they reach the Denver convention without
a clear winner, thus enhancing the role of the super delegates with the outcome
dependent on their votes.
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