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Sunday, 10 February 2008

With the campaign for the Democratic nomination proving to be a tight contest between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama there is growing speculation that the final decision as to which of the two will represent the Democrats in the November 4 general elections rests on the votes of the party’s super delegates.

Here in Florida, the 185 pledged delegates and 25 super delegates will not be seated at the National Democratic Convention in August, but if it is up to the super delegates, they will definitely take their seat. Florida’s super delegates are claiming that they must be seated, as the party’s national charter protects their right to be at the convention. It is understood that of these super delegates, seven, including Senator Bill Nelson and U.S. Reps. Kendrick Meek and Alcee Hastings, support Clinton; three, including U.S. Rep Robert Wexler, support Obama, and 15 are uncommitted.

Many people are unfamiliar with the role of super delegates, particularly since in previous Democratic presidential primaries the presidential nominee was selected relatively early in the primary season, and the role of the super delegates was marginal. This year, they may well be the deciding factor in the nomination process. Although Democratic primaries have been held in some 28 states, including 22 on Super Tuesday (February 5) less than 100 delegates divide those secured by Clinton (1,045) and Obama (960) leaving them at a virtual tie at this point of the contest.

Unless either of the candidates secures 2025 delegates prior to the Democratic convention in Denver, Colorado the decision will possibly rest with the party’s super delegates.

The delegates secured to date, through primaries and caucuses, are called pledged delegates, pledging their support to the respective candidates. The super delegates are, however, "unpledged" delegates drawn from various states. They make up about 20 percent of each party's total delegates at their respective national nominating conventions, and are at liberty to select any candidate regardless of the primary and caucus outcomes in their particular states.

Super delegates are typically governors, members of the U. S. House of Representative, the Senate and other party officials.

For their 2008 convention, Democrats have 792 super delegates out of the 4049 total delegates required to attend the convention, with 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination. Republicans have 463 unpledged delegates out of 2380 total with 1191 votes needed to win that party’s presidential nomination. John McCain seems to be the clear Republican nominee having secured over 700 delegates, with his closest rival, now Mike Huckabee, having only 195 and Mitt Romney dropping out of that race.

To date, there is little indication to how the Democratic super delegates will vote at the national convention, but there are reports that both candidates are courting them. In the case of Florida and Michigan, the situation affecting their super delegates becomes very important, especially if the election of the Democratic nominee rests with super delegates at the convention. Both states were denied all their delegates to the national convention by the Democratic National Committee because they moved up their primaries to January.

Unless the Florida Democratic Party succeeds in having the DNC reverse its decision, none of the delegates will be seated. Senator Clinton is pushing for the Florida’s 210 and Michigan’s 156 delegates to be seated. This would be to her benefit, as although the candidates did not contest the primaries held in either state, she received majority votes which would give her an advantage in the pledged delegate count and which could divert the dependency on super delegates’ votes. The Obama campaign would most likely strongly oppose this, as it would not be to their advantage.

The battle for delegates between Clinton and Obama now targets 363 delegates available in the Louisiana Democratic primary and caucuses in Washington, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands on February 9, the Maine caucus on February 10, and the Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia primaries on February 12. It is projected that Obama should get the majority share of these delegates with these states having large blocs of Black, young, and white collared workers (the black and green votes as one commentator describes it) who have been supporting Obama. However, when the primaries move to Texas and Ohio on March 4, victory is projected for Clinton based on the strong Latino and elderly-blue collar base (brown and grey) in those states – two blocks that have been supporting her. This tit-for-tat voting pattern for both candidates makes it more likely that they reach the Denver convention without a clear winner, thus enhancing the role of the super delegates with the outcome dependent on their votes.

 
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